Discover why some predictions succeed and others fail as experts forecast the future. Airing February 28, 2018 at 9 pm on PBS

Aired February 28, 2018 on PBS PBS Airdate: February 28, 2018 From our decisions about the weather NEWSCASTER: …the strongest hurricane ever on record.

NARRATOR: …to finding someone lost at sea… BOATSWAIN’S MATE 2 EDWARD NYGREN (United States Coast Guard): Commencing search pattern. BOATSWAIN’S MATE 1 LUKE SCHAFFER (United States Coast Guard): Keep a good look out.

NARRATOR: …every day mathematics and data combine to help us envision what might be. LIBERTY VITTERT (University of Glasgow): It’s the best crystal ball that humankind can have.

NARRATOR: Take a trip on the wings of probability, into the future. NARRATOR: Prediction by the Numbers, right now, on NOVA.

The Orange County Fair, held in Southern California: in theory, these crowds hold a predictive power that can have startling accuracy, but it doesn’t belong to any individual, only the group. And even then, it has to be viewed through the lens of mathematics. Read more from…

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