As a fun weekend activity I decided to dust off some of my various experimental Bitcoin market indicator charts to see if they can help shed any light on the outlook for Bitcoin prices. Adding to the mix this time is a look at 2018 trading YTD in the context of the average seasonal trading pattern, and a survey on investor allocations to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

We also review some of the charts I previously introduced (short interest, search sentiment, and speculative futures positioning). All up, the charts appear to be consistent with at least a short-term bottom—and without knowing anything else a slight bullish medium term bias.

(Albeit please read the disclaimer at the end!). The key observations and conclusions on the Bitcoin and the price outlook are: The results show apparently just over 10% of institutional investors are allocating to crypto, whereas in the latest survey just over 30% of individuals are.

I asked the same question for gold, to provide a comparison, and it seems 3 times as many institutional investors allocate to gold, and about twice as many individuals do. So it gives you some idea of where investors’ thinking is around the role of cryptocurrencies in a portfolio.

2. Bitcoin – Google Search Trends Sentiment Indicator: Speaking of investor perceptions, or more specifically on the issue of sentiment, the chart below shows a composite of Google trends ratings for various search terms (such as “invest in Bitcoin”, bitcoin mining, buy bitcoin, etc). Read more from…

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